http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright My Journal Copyright 2008, X_Zachary_Wright http://www.journalscape.com/rssdocs.html JournalScape Support <custsupport@journalscape.com> JournalScape RSS Generator v1.0 http://www.journalscape.com/rssdocs.html http://www.journalscape.com http://www.journalscape.com/images/poweredby.gif http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/2008-10-09-18:59/ Today's title with apologies to U2. <br> <br>GM hit a 58-year low today. Can you imagine? You could have bought GM stock in 1950 for the same price as it was today. <br> <br>** <br> <br>There's a New York lender I work with a lot whose stock traded in the low $50 range less than two years ago. Today their stock hit $1.02. They never made a sub-prime loan. They never bought a CDO. They are a commercial lender but unfortunately made loans to some condo developers. Didn't work out so well. <br> <br>Opportunities abound. There is probably a great deal of <br>opportunity out there now, but finding it and executing on it is the hard part. For example, in the early to mid-1990's Sam Zell bought an enormous amount of real estate when almost everyone else was running for the exits...and later he became a billionaire. But trying to call a bottom in real estate or stock market is extraordinarily difficult. <br> <br>** <br> <br>My guess is that we will reach a "capitulation point" in the stock market soon. But if we don't, then the good news is that if the current pace keeps up, the Dow will be at 0 in a few weeks, and we can all stop worrying about further declines. <br> <br>** <br> <br>I am not one of those folks with two phones in my ears all day and six screens flashing at me...so I don't watch the market plummet and freak out about it all day long. But yet after getting pummeled with bad news all day in both the market and on other things, I finally capitulated and took a walk in the hidden cemetery across the street from our building, which also happens to be Marilyn Monroe's final resting place. <br> <br>It's a great place to gather thoughts and reflect on things, a perfectly tranquil oasis in the middle of this crazy City of Angels. (Until the tour bus full of people looking for Marilyn pulls up, which it fortunately didn't today). I didn't come to any great epiphanies in the cemetery today. But it is a fine place to remember where we come from and where we are headed, so we better "enjoy the ride" or "live out loud" or "live the dash" (or insert your favorite cliché here). You know "live the dash," right? It's a reference to the two dates on the tombstone and the dash that separates them: "it doesn't matter what the dates are, it's how you live the dash." <br> <br>** <br> <br>The best question at the last debate? By far, the last question: "What don't you know and how will you learn it?" Of course, neither candidate really answered, but what a great question. We should all ask ourselves that. <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> jayhartman@gmail.com http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/comments/122955 Thu, 9 Oct 08 18:59:00 UT http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/comments/122955 3 Comments (3) http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/2008-10-05-21:12/ We have seen some good movies during the past month…Knocked Up (hilarious), Mr. Smith Goes to Washington (timeless classic), and Tuesdays With Morrie (sad, thought-provoking, and maybe just a bit schmaltzy). People always want to be entertained, no matter how bad the times. I heard that my mother’s mother had steady work throughout the Great Depression as a movie ticket taker in Philadelphia. <br> <br>And speaking of the Great Depression, I am getting a bit frustrated with all of the dire gloom and doom talk. I heard people on the radio this weekend saying there were going to get guns, and predicting dire scenarios about the fate of the dollar, the US economy, and the US itself. And because it sells magazines, Time last week had a black and white picture on its cover of a soup line in the depression. The bold headline screamed, “The New Hard Times,” at the bottom, the kicker said in small print, “No, this isn’t depression 2.0. How history can help us avoid it.” I am not advocating a head-in-the-sand approach, but please. Enough with the scare-mongering and breathless stories about the imminent demise of everything. <br> <br>Time Magazine also should be ashamed by its lack of fact-checking. How hard is it to do TSOR and figure out you are dead wrong on something before you go to press? In the last issue, there was a full-page spread comprised of two pictures: The top was a picture of a large crowd of people outside of a building in New York on October 24, 1929, and the bottom half was a picture of people outside the same building on September 30, 2008. The building itself was the centerpiece of both pictures. The top caption said: “Panicking investors outside the New York Stock Exchange as share prices plunge.” And the bottom caption says “Reporters and others outside the exchange a day after the Dow fell a record 778 points.” <br> <br>The one itsy-bitsy teeny-weeny problem with both captions is that the building is NOT the New York Stock Exchange. It is <a href="http://www.nps.gov/feha/">Federal Hall,<a/> with a prominent statue of George Washington in front. As Wikipedia points out, Federal Hall is “located at 26 Wall Street in New York City, was the first capitol of the United States of America and the site of George Washington's first inauguration in 1789. It is also the place where the United States Bill of Rights was passed. The original building was demolished in the nineteenth century and replaced by the current structure, which served as the first United States Customs House.” <br> <br>Federal Hall’s columns look a bit like the columns of the <a href="http://www.nybeyondsight.org/img/portspics/new-york-stock-exchange.jpg"> stock exchange building<a/>, which is just down the street. I was there a few weeks ago. In fact, in the lower picture in Time Magazine, there are two people in the foreground who are literally angled towards the NYSE building, taking pictures of it. <br> <br>** <br> <br>Tina Fey continues to kill as Sarah Palin on SNL. If you didn’t see the debate on SNL, it’s well worth finding and watching on the internet. Queen Latifah as Gwen Ifill also killed...I saw Ifill on Meet the Press this morning, and she was laughing about it and was flattered to have been portrayed by Latifah. Fey is brilliant as Palin. <br> <br>Speaking of Palin, she has now publicly criticized twice the McCain campaign’s decision to abandon Michigan. If I was McCain, I’d be more than a little annoyed. <br> <br>And I agree with the thoughtful republicans (George Will and Peggy Noonan) on the Sunday morning shows today, when they were critical of McCain’s latest strategy of going after Obama on a more personal level. Palin said yesterday that Obama pals around with terrorists, a reference to Obama’s tenuous association with Bill Ayres. It was pointed out that independents likely won’t fall for that kind of shoddy personal attack…instead of arguing that Obama has bad policies, McCain people are now shifting to “Obama is a bad person,” which the talking heads don’t think will play among the undecided voters. McCain continues to show anger, and the pundits point out that “people don’t elect angry presidents.” And if McCain or his people want to play the “guilt by association game,” they better brace for two words to be pounded into the heads of Americans in the coming weeks: “Charles Keating.” <br> <br>Obama is looking good on the electoral maps right now, but there still time for several momentum shifts, and Obama’s people are well aware of it. McCain has been counted out prematurely many times. Are the polls accurately capturing the young voters who only have cell phones, no land lines? It’s not clear, but something worth considering. <br> <br> jayhartman@gmail.com http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/comments/122796 Sun, 5 Oct 08 21:12:00 UT http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/comments/122796 1 Comments (1) http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/2008-10-03-15:29/ I think almost everything has been said about last night's debate already, but it is still amazing to me how many politicians, (regardless of party) completely ignore a question from a debate moderator, and simply give part of their stump speech, or some memorized lines, as a response. <br> <br>If Palin's purpose last night was to reassure republicans that she is not as vapid and vacuous as she seemed in the Couric interviews, then she was a smashing success. <br> <br>Tangential topic: The giant egos of most politicians. Yesterday, I received, in a nice flat mailer, a high-quality 8 x 11 color glossy photograph of McCain and Palin with a personal inscription to me, and signed by McCain and Palin (of course all done by computer). Natch, included with this "suitable for framing" picture was a fundraising plea--those dastardly democrats need to be stopped...and you can help! <br> <br>I am not surprised by this--it's a fundraising technique that's been around for awhile. But I was just thinking of it in a new light today: Let's just take a minute to put on our sanity hats and think about how utterly preposterous and egotistical it is, in any other context, to send a big picture of yourself to a stranger who didn't ask for it. But politicians? It's not a surprise, and it's almost expected. Of course, politicians of all stripes do this, so I am only singling out McCain because his mug is staring up at me from my recycling bin as I write this. <br> <br>It makes sense if you are an actress or actor or model who is trying to get a gig, and you are sending a head shot to an agency. And it's part of the biz if you are a professional athlete or a movie star and a fan *asks* for an autographed picture. But a politician sending an *unsolicited* picture? Even if you know it works as a fundraiser, and that's your main purpose in doing it, it still takes a large dose of egotism to go ahead with a mass mailing of your picture. Good grief. <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> jayhartman@gmail.com http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/comments/122650 Fri, 3 Oct 08 15:29:00 UT http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/comments/122650 1 Comments (1) http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/2008-10-01-17:36/ Maybe the title of this entry could also be the name of a new Christian rock band? <br> <br>McCain's people have set the bar so low for Sarah Palin in the debate that if Gov Palin shows up and manages to not say, "I'll have to get back to ya on that one," then it will be heralded as a major victory. <br> <br>Seriously, Palin may well come out firing in the debate and be able return to her persona from the Republican Convention. She proved herself a skilled debater in Alaska. Biden needs to be very careful of over-confidence and silly mistakes. Did anyone see Biden's gaffe recently, as mocked by The Daily Show? Biden said that after the 1929 stock market crash, President Roosevelt got on TV and explained the situation to people...but of course, there was no TV in 1929 and Roosevelt wasn't president. So we all know that Biden can be a blowhard. <br> <br>But can there be many serious people left who actually think Sarah Palin is qualified to be Vice President? <br> <br>It's one thing when no-name hack bloggers like me rant about her. It's quite another when conservative icons like George Will say what a poor choice she is. It's another thing when highly intelligent folks like Fareed Zakaria, (who may be left-leaning but is not a partisan hack, and doesn't hesitate to criticize democrats) <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/id/161204">exposes<a/> the Palin nomination as approaching absurdity. <br> <br>I just watched another clip of Palin with Couric. They were talking about Roe v. Wade, and Palin says that it should be a matter for the states to decide (okay, conservatives, so you threw 200 years of states rights advocacy out the window when you decided it was a *federal* matter to decide the fate of Terri Schiavo, but we will let that slide). The point here, was that Couric then asked Palin what other Supreme Court decisions she disagreed with. This is *not* gotcha journalism. This is standard fodder for a politician seeking high office, and was actually in the flow of the conversation. <br> <br>Palin, not surprisingly, was stuck and couldn't name one. Please. I have never spent a day in law school, or running for VP of the United States, but just by "osmosis," (e.g., reading the WSJ and the NYT and listening to NPR for years) I could say off the top of my head that Plessy v Ferguson was one of the worst Supreme Court decisions ever (basically said segregation was fine), but it was fortunately overturned by Brown vs. Board of Education in the mid-1950's. Bush v Gore in 2000 was another big one that I disagree with now, but Palin surely thought of that and dismissed it because she agrees with it. (Not!) Palin probably couldn't even name a Supreme Court Decision, period, other than Roe v. Wade. <br> <br>McCain's judgment will be on the line tomorrow night; I am very much looking forward to the debate. <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> jayhartman@gmail.com http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/comments/122548 Wed, 1 Oct 08 17:36:00 UT http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/comments/122548 2 Comments (2) http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/2008-09-30-18:26/ In my latest entries on this thread, I have tried to live up to the MBA creed--"write at great length on subjects about which you know very little." Setting aside any issues you may have with the lack of accuracy and minimal coherence of my writing, you at least have to admit that I have written voluminously. <br> <br>Which brings me to the point of this entry...in a grand gesture of munificence, I am not going to mention politics or finance today. <br> <br>Instead, I will tell you about my piano lesson last night. Have you ever heard a professional singer do "Happy Birthday" live? And Marilyn singing it to JFK doesn't count unless you were there. <br> <br>Last night I heard "Happy Birthday" sung perfectly for the first time...I had just learned to play it on the piano during the prior week, and after practicing it about 100 times at home, I sort of had it down, or close to down. (Me playing it that many times in the house, the first 50 times poorly, probably has ruined the song for my wife--sorry Holly!) But I did want to be able to play the song correctly before our little daughter is born, so I can be ready to play it for her 0th birthday. <br> <br>Don't get me wrong, I greatly enjoy the traditional group singing of "Happy Birthday," especially when it's for a little kid who is positively glowing with excitement. And importantly, the group-sing masks my shockingly bad voice. <br> <br>But my piano teacher, who also happens to be a voice teacher and sings in a band, nailed every note when she accompanied me last night...it was really remarkable. <br> <br>I asked her if she gets annoyed when she is in a group of "laypeople" who butcher the song every time, and she said she actually likes that more than when she is with a bunch of musicians at a birthday party...and they are all trying to outdo each other when it comes time to sing the song. <br> <br>And that's it for today. No rant, no soapbox. Cheers! <br> <br> <br> <br> jayhartman@gmail.com http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/comments/122505 Tue, 30 Sep 08 18:26:00 UT http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/comments/122505 2 Comments (2) http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/2008-09-27-20:06/ In baseball, doing your job right forty times out of a hundred (i.e., getting a base hit) over a whole season makes you one of the all-time superstars--no one has hit .400 since Ted Williams hit .406 in 1941. In baseball, thirty out of a hundred is pretty good as well. <br> <br>In mortgage banking, if you do your job right 91 times out of a hundred, you risk bringing down the US financial system. <br> <br>Even though I know a thing or two about finance, and specifically, real estate finance (I have been in the financial industry for the past 16 years, first as a banker and more recently, as a managing director of a real estate investment firm), my mind is boggled: How can be that 93.6% of mortgages in the US are NOT delinquent (as of the end of the second quarter of 2008, according to the MBA--Mortgage Bankers Association) but yet we are facing an epic financial crisis that has already caused the biggest bank failures in US history and is still threatening to collapse the US economy? Due to the introduction of vast complexities, greed and obscene amounts of leverage, our “best and brightest” in private industry and government have created and presided over a system where if a relatively small number of people can’t pay their home loans, the entire economy can implode. <br> <br>The MBA figures are slightly misleading since delinquencies do not include loans that are already in foreclosure. But according to the MBA, that is only 2.7% of loans as of the same date. So we can infer that 90.9% of ALL loans (including sub-prime) were CURRENT as of the end of the second quarter. There has obviously been deterioration in the third quarter, but neither of these numbers fell of a cliff. <br> <br>The MBA report also notes that during the second quarter of 2008, 0.34% of fixed rate prime loans started the foreclosure process. That means 99.66% of fixed rate prime loans did NOT start the foreclosure process. The percentage of sub-prime foreclosure starts for the same period was 2.07% for fixed rate and 6.63% for variable rate sub-prime loans. California and Florida accounted for 39% of foreclosure starts during the second quarter (those dagburn Californians!) <br> <br>And these stats are of course only for people who HAVE home loans...remember, there are many people who own their homes free and clear. <br> <br>I understand that we are at historic highs for delinquencies and foreclosures. But I remain flabbergasted as to how more than 90% of us are keeping our home loans current but yet our government is about to undertake the mother of all bailouts in order to save our economy from a catastrophic collapse. Was it that fragile? I guess so. That’s what happens when you lever 30 to 1 or 35 to 1. Most of us know, applying a modicum of common sense, that you don’t borrow 30 times your net worth, for ANYTHING. But most of Wall Street didn’t know it. The pigs have gotten slaughtered, but not all of them…some of them are still begging for a bailout. “Heads I take all the profits, tails you take the losses.” The privatization of profits and the socialization of risk. Whatever you want to name it, it’s disgusting and pathetic and inexcusable. <br> <br>We have a lot of people to thank for this fine mess. I was glad to read recently that FBI is on the case, investigating hundreds of people and firms for mortgage fraud. I hope the guilty are brought to justice and serve long jail terms. <br> <br>Separately, pulled from the headlines today: <br> <br>1. One well-known private equity firm, TPG (formerly Texas Pacific Group) who has made a lot of money in the past, and enjoys (enjoyed?) an excellent reputation, now can probably claim the grand prize in the "worst private equity deal of all time" contest. As described in the WSJ today, TPG invested $1.35 billion in Washington Mutual about five months ago. Approximate value of that investment today: $0. <br> <br>2. "US Mint Halts Sale of Popular Gold Coin." Due to overwhelming demand, the mint stopped sales of the 24-karat American Buffalo coin, which contains one ounce of gold. It sells for about $1,100. The reason for the high demand is not so much that coin collectors think it will be a winner. It's that people are seeking the safety and strength of gold in the face of deep economic uncertainty. It is a sign of the times, my friends. <br> <br>Things will get better. They may get worse for a bit first, but our country has suffered far worse and came out ok. Now, there is pent-up demand for things that people have put off buying for a year or more. In the Great Depression, home loan delinquencies were 7-10 times higher and the unemployment rate was 4-5 times higher. And even at the height of the Great Depression, 75% of the workforce still had jobs. Despite a lot of suffering, I don't think we are headed that way; not by a long shot. <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> jayhartman@gmail.com http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/comments/122386 Sat, 27 Sep 08 20:06:00 UT http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/comments/122386 4 Comments (4) http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/2008-09-24-17:53/ I have a solution: <br> <br>If we are going to throw taxpayer money at the financial catastrophe, let's buy real, tangible assets--homes--instead of potentially worthless paper. Then, the government can take homes off the for-sale market and mothball them and/or rent them, and sell 10% of them per year for the next ten years. We (taxpayers) might even make a lot of money on that deal, especially if the government hires some shrewd negotiators to buy the homes. <br> <br>This is a modification of Holman Jenkins' solution, promulgated in his WSJ columns. Jenkins has been saying that we should buy thousands of homes and bulldoze them, reducing the supply. For many reasons, I would rather have the government keep the homes. Not the least of which is the attendant horrible world-wide PR of destroying that many homes, when there are so many homeless people in the US. <br> <br>The numbers: Current median sale price of a home in the US: $203K. Homes currently on the market in US: 4.3 million, which is about 2X the "normal" supply. (Data from National Association of Realtors.) To find equilibrium, we need to get about 2 million homes off the market. Rough calculation: 2 million homes X $203K per home = $406 billion. Throw in $44 billion for property taxes, HOA fees, and administration, and call it a $450 billion program to remedy the fundamental imbalance that is driving this whole mess. <br> <br>There, I just saved us $250 billion AND got us hard assets which may appreciate or depreciate, but importantly *can be rented for a profit*, unlike the toxic paper we are expected to buy. The paper will allegedly entitle the owner of the paper to receive interest payments...but I wouldn't count on it in many cases. <br> <br>You can thank me later with a 0.01% fee on the $250 billion that I just saved us. (That's one-hundredth of one percent, or one basis point, equals a mere $25 million in this case.) <br> <br>One of the big problems with the government buying toxic paper from current holders (banks, hedge funds, insurance companies, foreign financial institutions, etc.) is that someone is going to get humped on valuation...I will give you one guess who. It starts with a "t" and ends with an "axpayer." <br> <br>One crazy thing is that there IS a market for the "toxic paper" today. My friend who runs a hedge fund told me this afternoon that his fund is buying tens of millions of dollars of it every day. And the big hedge funds are literally buying hundreds of millions of dollars of it every day. <br> <br>But the highly-regulated holders of toxic paper (like commercial banks) are especially loath to sell big chunks of it because they have it marked at, say, 94 cents (on the dollar) but it is selling for, say, 53 cents. (And Merrill Lynch recently sold a big chunk of theirs at 22 cents). So the holders who have it marked at 94 cents are expecting to sell to the government at, say, 85 to 94 cents instead of 50 to 60 cents. That's a big part of why some of those financials were up 50% or 60% in a day last week--the idea that the government was going to take a lot of this paper off their hands at above-market prices. <br> <br>So, if we are going to be buying $700 billion of something, I would rather it be homes, which can be valued by someone with a walnut brain like me (look at five comps, make adjustments...and presto, a value). This is in sharp contrast to the toxic paper, which is often valued by rocket-scientist quants who build 2,000-row Excel valuation models that purport to value, for example, a CDO of a CDO of a CDO...that, as Warren Buffet aptly pointed out, has literally about 700,000 pages of documentation behind it. <br> <br>Separate topic: Banning short sales--absurd. Here's a problem with banning shorts, as pointed out by my friend at the hedge fund: In times of market melt-downs, shorts are often basically the only buyers in the game...they are buying to cover their short positions, and if they weren't buying, there would be a catastrophic dearth of bids and prices would fall even MORE precipitously in times of panic. <br> <br>Shorts give pricing info and signals to the market...they are sometime unscrupulous, intentionally spreading false rumors about a stock's imminent demise, but there are longs doing essentially the same thing, only on the hype-to-buy side. Does the name Henry Blodgett ring a bell? <br> <br>Banning short sales is akin to having a patient in the ICU who is hooked up to six monitoring devices...and if the doctor doesn't like the readout on one of them, he simply turns off the device. Presto chang-o, it's all good! <br> <br>On that happy note, I will retreat back to work. <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> jayhartman@gmail.com http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/comments/122257 Wed, 24 Sep 08 17:53:00 UT http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/comments/122257 6 Comments (6) http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/2008-09-23-21:44/ As always, I am glad to be back in the City of the Angels. I have been at the resort our firm owns on the Pacific Coast of Mexico since Sunday, for meetings...and I arrived back at LAX a few hours ago. For me, international business travel these days is the opposite of glamorous. <br> <br>The ocean is bathtub warm at this time of year at our resort, but I didn't spend much time in the sea. I was basically in meetings all day, every day, including on the golf course. No, that is not a metaphor for playing golf. We literally had a meeting on the golf course...the people we were with didn't have time to play golf, but wanted to see the course, so we simply continued our business discussion on golf carts. Is better to have a meeting in a conference room in an office building, or on a moving golf cart on a nice course, but with outrageous humidity and a temperature of 88 degrees? I suppose both have their advantages and disadvantages. <br> <br>*** <br> <br>Politics: <br> <br>I just read a <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/id/160080">provocative opinion piece <a/> on Palin by Sam Harris in Newsweek. I agreed with a lot of it, but one thing I would point out is that if Harris thinks that Palin is guilty by association because of some lunatics in her church, then logically he should think Obama is guilty of the same thing, due to Rev. Wright. I think a better argument can be formed by sticking to Palin's shortcomings rather than the wingnuts who go to her church. <br> <br>And here is a <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/id/160085">rebuttal<a/> that Newsweek printed, from Michael Gerson. <br> <br>I think one sad thing about Sarah Palin's nomination is that I now believe that McCain knows in his heart of hearts that she would not be the best person to lead the country should he die (I ruminated otherwise on this thread right after McCain picked her). It was a cynical, savvy political move by McCain, designed to get himself elected. But McCain has to know, deep down, in a quiet place in his soul, that others who he considered for VP are far more qualified than Palin, from Condi Rice and Kay Bailey Hutchison, to Mitt Romney, Tom Ridge, and Joe Lieberman. <br> <br>McCain may justify it in his own mind by saying that he is so much more qualified than Obama that his choice of Palin was a necessary thing to get himself into office, consequences of his own untimely demise be damned. But that is cynical and narcissistic, and not representative of the McCain that I have so much respect for. If McCain had a 1% chance of getting my vote before he picked Palin, it has decreased to 0% as I learned more about Palin in the past few weeks. (But of course, I am not in the group that McCain was targeting with the Palin pick.) <br> <br>I have thoughtful conservative friends who freely admit to Palin’s (rather significant) shortcomings, but still say that Obama and Biden would be worse for the country. I think they are dead wrong, but I will never convince them of that. And so the divisiveness beat goes on; there is nothing new under the sun. <br> <br>** <br> <br>My brother just forwarded a funny e-mail to me. For those who have ever received a scam "Nigerian Bank" spam or similar email (99% or 100% of you?) this note needs no further introduction. <br> <br>** <br> <br>Dear American: <br>I need to ask you to support an urgent secret business relationship with a transfer of funds of great magnitude. <br> <br>I am Ministry of the Treasury of the Republic of America. My country has had crisis that has caused the need for large transfer of funds of 800 billion dollars US. If you would assist me in this transfer, it would be most profitable to you. <br> <br>I am working with Mr. Phil Gram, lobbyist for UBS, who will be my replacement as Ministry of the Treasury in January. As a Senator, you may know him as the leader of the American banking deregulation movement in the 1990s. This transactin is 100% safe. <br> <br>This is a matter of great urgency. We need a blank check. We need the funds as quickly as possible. We cannot directly transfer these funds in the names of our close friends because we are constantly under surveillance. My family lawyer advised me that I should look for a reliable and trustworthy person who will act as a next of kin so the funds can be transferred. <br> <br>Please reply with all of your bank account, IRA and college fund account numbers and those of your children and grandchildren to wallstreetbailout@treasury.gov so that we may transfer your commission for this transaction. After I receive that information, I will respond with detailed information about safeguards that will be used to protect the funds. <br> <br>Yours Faithfully Minister of Treasury Paulson <br> jayhartman@gmail.com http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/comments/122222 Tue, 23 Sep 08 21:44:00 UT http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/comments/122222 0 Comments (0) http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/2008-09-21-09:55/ We have big news upcoming in our family--we are expecting a little girl on October 23. <br> <br>It is a very exciting time for us and there are constant reminders of how close we are getting—for example, we have spent three hours on each of the past three Thursday nights at classes Cedars (where we are expecting our daughter to be born). <br> <br>Holly has been a tower of strength throughout the pregnancy--I think most men, including me, are probably incapable of even imagining accurately the mental and physical rigors of pregnancy. <br> <br>We are both aware, however, of how fortunate we are that we do have a little one on the way--it has been a long road for us and we are acutely aware that there are many, many couples who try for long periods of time and for whatever reason, are not able to conceive. <br> <br>We have been hoping so hard for a healthy baby that the gender has been sort of a secondary issue for me, but people have been asking and I have been answering truthfully--that I am ecstatic to be having a girl. <br> <br>Of course, I have all of the "first time parent" worries (plus maybe even more) but I am certain that parents down through the ages have worried about what kind of world they are bringing their child into, and if they will be up to the task of parenting. But we--humanity--have always muddled through, and sometimes succeeded spectacularly. <br> <br>So I wonder what kind of world our daughter will live in and what kind of life she will lead. Fortunately, we have moved away from "nasty, brutish, and short," but maybe Tom Friedman is right: "Hot, Flat, and Crowded." <br> <br>We know she will be "in debt" from the moment she is born--our national debt seems to be spiraling out of control these days. That's a moral issue as well as a fiscal issue...who will have the intelligence and the moxie and the skills to fix it? No one in my generation, I'm afraid. <br> <br>But there is reason to be optimistic for her future as well. There is always opportunity somewhere in the world for people who want it. There are always things she can do to thrive. And it is our job to give her the skill sets and instill the habits and the morals that will serve her well. And we can hope against hope that she or others in her generation will come up with creative and workable solutions for some of the problems that vex humanity. <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> jayhartman@gmail.com http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/comments/122107 Sun, 21 Sep 08 09:55:00 UT http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/comments/122107 6 Comments (6) http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/2008-09-18-16:07/ The stock market has officially gone bananas. (That’s a highly technical term that I will explain next time I have a white board.) <br> <br>The DJIA closed at 11,019, up 410 for the day. It was mostly driven by word of upcoming regulatory limits on bearish trading and the potential for a new government entity like the RTC (Resolution Trust Corp, created to clean up the savings and loan debacle) to come in and buy up toxic paper. The frenzied upswing during the last part of the trading day today was indicative of how starved the market is for good news. <br> <br>On my Google home page, I have a few baskets of stocks I follow. My day-trading days are long gone, but I like to keep an eye on certain stocks. Today, the banking and finance stocks I have on my page were reminiscent of the craziest days of the dotcom bubble...only even crazier, since these are some of the biggest names in US finance...real companies with real operating histories. <br> <br>Wachovia was up 61% today...WaMu was up 49%. Of course, this comes on the heels of massive declines...if your stock is worth $100 and it goes down by 80% and then up 60%, it's still only worth $32...the trick is to buy when it was at $20. I am not kicking myself for missing all these "great buys" today since any of them could have gone down 50% or 80% from their lows today. (And they still might!) <br> <br>*** <br> <br>Name - Price - Today's Change - (Percent) - Market Cap <br> <br>AIG 2.69 +0.64 (31.22%) 7.23B <br>BAC 30.58 +3.38 (12.43%) 139.45B <br>C 16.65 +2.62 (18.67%) 90.67B <br>CNB 10.50 +3.11 (42.08%) 2.12B <br>CYN 65.35 +11.96 (22.40%) 3.13B <br>FNM 0.490 +0.060 (13.95%) 524.21M <br>FRE 0.330 +0.060 (22.22%) 213.52M <br>GS 108.0 -6.50 (-5.68%) 42.53B <br>JPM 40.30 +4.53 (12.66%) 138.51B <br>LEH 0.052 -0.078 (-60.0%) N/A <br>MER 22.06 +2.70 (13.95%) 33.73B <br>MS 22.55 +0.80 (3.68%) 25.01B <br>SFI 5.00 +1.48 (42.05%) 668.84M <br>STT 59.00 -5.75 (-8.88%) 25.47B <br>WB 14.70 +5.58 (61.18%) 31.74B <br>WFC 37.00 +3.57 (10.68%) 122.43B <br>WM 2.99 +0.98 (48.76%) 5.10B <br> <br> <br> <br> jayhartman@gmail.com http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/comments/122018 Thu, 18 Sep 08 16:07:00 UT http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/comments/122018 0 Comments (0) http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/2008-09-17-12:17/ A few items today: <br> <br>*** <br> <br>Financial meltdown. My friend who runs a hedge fund points out that Treasury Secretary Paulson, ex-Goldman Sachs executive, has, by not providing government support, "wiped out" former rivals Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. Plus, he surely helped facilitate the jump-from-the-burning-building by former rival Merrill Lynch into the arms of Bank of America. And the companies that Paulson has helped the most so far are not rivals of Goldman: Fannie, Freddie, and AIG. A giant conspiracy? I don't think so (fairly absurd, in fact), and I don't think my friend does, either...but it's making the rounds among financial types more as a wry observation than a true conspiracy theory. <br> <br>I feel very little sympathy for many of the Wall Street folks who gorged themselves on liquidity, made enormous sums of money, and now are nearly wiped out completely due to their stock being down 80% to 99%. <br> <br>I am fairly well disgusted buy the behavior of many folks who have effectively yelled "Free markets!" and "Government out of the way!" for many years, who are now screaming for government intervention to save their companies and investments. <br> <br>*** <br> <br>What is sport? That question will probably not ever be settled, with activities like Chess-Boxing providing grist for argument. (Not to mention the card game Bridge vying to be included in the Olympics.) <br> <br>But a letter writer to the NYT yesterday made a good point...he was writing about the NYT calling it Sarah Palin's "sport of moose hunting." <br> <br>The writer pointed out: "True sport involves two individuals or teams, similarly equipped and competing under the same rules. Hunting will qualify as a sport only when the hunter goes after the moose or grizzly bear on foot, without a weapon, one on one. Until that happens, hunting is only legal slaughter." <br> <br>*** <br> <br>This reminds me of a salty old construction superintendent who I know, let's call him Mike. Mike just told me a story about a construction job he managed several years ago in a very rough part of Oakland, CA. There was a big problem with theft at the site, so he hired a new night security guy, who I will call Bill. A week later, Mike went to the site late at night because he forgot some papers. It was very dark...Mike was putting the key in the door to the trailer and he heard Bill say, "Freeze or you're dead." <br> <br>Mike said, "It's Mike, I just hired you, I am going to turn around very slowly with my hands up." Mike turned around to see the new security guy with a fully cocked crossbow aimed at Mike's chest. <br> <br>"What the f**k you have a crossbow for?!" Mike asked. <br> <br>Bill said, "A gun is too loud and someone will call the cops if they hear gunfire. Plus, it's not very sporting to shoot someone with a gun, even if they are stealing from you." <br> <br>My question: Is that sportsman-like conduct by Bill? In any event, the thefts totally stopped and Mike never asked Bill if the crossbow actually had to be used or if it was simply an effective deterrent. <br> <br>*** <br> <br>I heard a great story on NPR last night about a young Jewish couple, the Reys, in Paris, just before World War II. Sensing danger, they rode their bicycles out of Paris right before it fell to the Nazis; one of the things they took with them was a book manuscript. They eventually arrived in New York, via Portugal and Brazil. It's a good thing they escaped from Paris for many reasons, not the least of which was the manuscript they carried. You might have heard of the character they created that was in the manuscript; his name is Curious George, and the names of the couple were <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margret_Rey">Margret<a/> and Hans Augusto (H.A.) Rey. <br> <br>*** <br> <br>Finally, I read a revolting and disturbing <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/09/16/abused.pigs.ap/index.html?iref=mpstoryview">item<a/> on CNN this morning. I wonder how much animal torture we would have in this country if the punishment was "whatever you did to the animal gets done to you." <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> jayhartman@gmail.com http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/comments/121959 Wed, 17 Sep 08 12:17:00 UT http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/comments/121959 0 Comments (0) http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/2008-09-14-17:24/ I am watching the US financial system convulse as I write this on Sunday afternoon...it was an insane weekend on Wall Street...tomorrow should be a heck of a day. But since there's nothing I can do about that, and in the spirit of fiddling while Rome burns: The contest entries are in. Those who didn't participate are officially wimps. What did you say? You have better things to do with your time? What do you mean, what could possibly be more important than this contest? <br> <br>Obviously McCain is looking strong right now, but in the remaining time, I think we will see at least a couple more momentum swings. And at least we can be confident that Obama's campaign won't come out with a last-minute despicable ad saying that one of the McCain daughters is the product of an affair that McCain had with a black woman. Supporters of Bush did this to McCain right before a primary in 2000 (I think North Carolina) and the McCain campaign never recovered. (The truth is that the McCains adopted the girl from an orphanage in Bangladesh.) Talk about campaigning without honor. Talk about sickening behavior. <br> <br>Anyway, before we get to the contest picks, <a href="http://www.nbc.com/Saturday_Night_Live/video/clips/palin-hillary-open/656281/">here<a/> is a link to Tina Fey as Sarah Palin on SNL. <br> <br>And here are the official contest picks. <br> <br>Anonymous Hawk: McCain 285 <br> <br>Ivan: Obama 287 <br> <br>Holly: Hillary Clinton 296 (Holly wishes to point out that she truly hopes that she is wrong.) <br> <br>Dobe Doinat: 269 Tie, McCain by one in the Supreme Court. <br> <br>Kathleen Ogden: McCain 274 <br> <br>Jay: Obama 286 <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> jayhartman@gmail.com http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/comments/121834 Sun, 14 Sep 08 17:24:00 UT http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/comments/121834 1 Comments (1) http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/2008-09-10-22:35/ I am wondering if certain people are not entering because they are afraid of losing to a woman (my wife Holly) who won the last contest by a mile. <br> <br>Since I have only three entries, I am going to extend the deadline to Friday. <br> <br>And one of the entries I received was shocking...it is not a joke, but I was very surprised to see it. <br> <br>Some people say, "I don't bet on politics," but remember, this is not a bet, it's a contest...a bet means you have something to lose. This is like "guess the number of jelly beans in the jar," with no entry fee. <br> <br>It's not like you need to spend any time studying the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College"> electoral map<a/> to submit good entry...there's 538 total available, and 270 are needed to win. So if you think it will be close, pick a number close to 270. <br> <br>Think of the bragging rights if you win! All six readers of this thread will be eternally impressed with you. <br> <br> <br> jayhartman@gmail.com http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/comments/121717 Wed, 10 Sep 08 22:35:00 UT http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/comments/121717 6 Comments (6) http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/2008-09-09-17:53/ I have had it up to here with earmarks. Sarah Palin is perhaps trying to reach the pinnacle of pot-kettle-blackism. <br> <br>The Wall Street Journal and Fox News are not exactly known for being shills for Obama. And the WSJ at least is widely known to have a fair and accurate *news* division. <br> <br>With that in mind, here is a headline from a <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122090791901411709.html">WSJ article<a/> today: "Record Contradicts Palin's 'Bridge' Claims" <br> <br>And here is a part of a <a href=" <br>http://embeds.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/09/09/palin-attacks-obama-on-earmarks/">piece<a/> on Fox News: "She again failed to mention the earmarks she has accepted for Alaska which amounted to 52 earmarks valued at $256 million in her first year and 31 earmarks valued at $197 million this year." <br> <br>The Fox piece was headlined "Palin attacks Obama on earmarks." And it also pointed out that Palin accused Obama of requesting "over $1 billion in earmarks." <br> <br>The AP, quoted in the WSJ, says that the facts are that Obama requested $311 million in earmarks last year and none this year. And, the WSJ says, "In comparison, Gov. Palin has requested $750 million in her two years as governor -- which the AP says is the largest per-capita request in the nation." <br> <br>I generally dislike all earmarks, but let's look at this on a per-capita basis, shall we? <br> <br>Obama's two-year total of $311 million in requests works out to about $24 per person for each of the 12.8 million (approx) people in Illinois. Even at $3 billion (Palin's claim, which I suspect is wildly off-base) that is about $240 per person for each Illinois resident. By contrast, Palin's two-year total of $750 million in requests for Alaska works out to about $1,119 per person for each of the 670,000 (approx) people in Alaska. Therefore, a per-capita basis, Palin was at least 4.6X worse than Obama, but probably 46X worse than Obama. <br> <br>And one more thing, from the WSJ article: <br> <br>*** <br>But she's drawn considerable fire as result. Sen. Obama's campaign released an advertisement pointing out [Palin's] original support of the bridge. And on Monday, an Obama staffer emailed a photo of Gov. Palin holding up a T-shirt that was made shortly after the bridge caught national attention. It reads "NOWHERE ALASKA" and "99901," the zip code of Ketchikan. <br> <br>The McCain campaign jumped back with spokesman Brian Rogers calling the attacks "hysterical." <br>*** <br> <br>I don't think Rogers was saying "hysterical" as in "hysterically funny" or was even saying "hysterical" sarcastically. I think he was saying "hysterical," like someone's tone when they call 911 as their house burns down. <br> <br>Which brings me to the point: professional word-slingers use words like "hysterical" (in the panic sense) to describe the other side when the word-slinger has no compelling facts to answer a charge or an argument. Very often, it's an admission of being wrong on an issue. It's much like saying "you took the bait" to your adversary after they seamlessly dismantle your argument and you have nothing left to say in response. <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> jayhartman@gmail.com http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/comments/121672 Tue, 9 Sep 08 17:53:00 UT http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/comments/121672 2 Comments (2) http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/2008-09-07-21:16/ Okay folks, by popular demand, another contest: This one is very, very simple. First prize is a nice bottle of wine. Second place is the first loser. <br> <br>Pick a winner of the presidential election and the number of electoral votes they will get. The person who picks the winner and is closest (no penalty for being over) on the electoral votes wins. <br> <br>Rules: <br> <br>1. Picks must be to me, by e-mail or comment on this thread, by Wednesday, September 10. <br> <br>2. As the supplier of the grand prize for a contest with no entry fee, the sponsor gets the house advantage of submitting my entry after everyone else has submitted theirs. As an example, you might say "Obama, 287 electoral votes." (And you never know, I may have just revealed my entry.) <br> <br>3. Sponsor reserves right to change prize to a nice bottle of Scotch. <br> <br>4. Sponsor reserves right to change rules at any time without notice. <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> <br> jayhartman@gmail.com http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/comments/121552 Sun, 7 Sep 08 21:16:00 UT http://www.journalscape.com/X_Zachary_Wright/comments/121552 4 Comments (4)