I could hear the frustration in G.W's voice today during the press conference he gave in the Azores. It's been a rough few weeks. The Turks have refused to allow U.S. troops to enter their country, eliminating the possibility of a northern front if we invade Iraq. The U.N. security counsel will not pass any resolutions further authorizing the use of force. A few Labor party cabinet members have indicated that they will resign if British troops join in an attack without U.N. authorization.

I suspect that in the next few days we will know whether the Bush administration is going to go through with an attack. It is clear to me that the President believes that attacking Iraq is the right thing to do, but I think that he still might hold off on doing it if he concludes that the cost to the U.S. would be greater than the benefit. On the cost side there is the lack of international support, the split in American public opinion, and a recent poll which reveals that most Arabs believe that terrorism against the U.S. will increase if we attack the Iraq.

I was pretty busy this weekend with my daughter, but I think I'll look for some way to actively participate in the antiwar movement this week. I've gone over my reasons for my opposition to the war before but I think I will lay them out again:

1. The lack of a threat. Four months of inspections have revealed a few missiles that can reach about two hundred miles. No substantial evidence of a nuclear weapons program since 1991. No stockpiles of chemical or biological weapons. Most telling, Iraq's neighbors, the people to whom the alleged threat is greatest, are unwilling to support us.

2. The negative impact on our relationships with other countries who will view our actions as imperialistic. Many nations view our actions as an extension of the colonialist activities of European nations for the past few centuries. Many of them see this as an attempt to impose Western cultural values on the Middle East, and see Iraq as just a starting point.

3. The horrendous international precedent we are creating here the impact of which may be used as an excuse for other nations to use military pre-emptive strikes. Maybe China should use one on Taiwan.

4. The sudden race for the bomb by every other two bit dictator that sees our disparate treatment of North Korea and Iraq. Iraq is at least ten years away from getting nuclear weapons. Iran, the other member of the axis of evil, is on verge of getting nuclear weapons but for some reason we aren't doing a thing to them.

5. Invading Iraq will do nothing to limit the abilities of Al-Qaeda, and will likely increase their recruiting power. See reference to the poll above. The U.S. has been unable to successfully link Iraq with Al-Qaeda. The nations most closely associated with Al-Qaeda are Saudi Arabia, The Sudan, Afghanistan, Yemen, and Pakistan. The one possible Al-Qaeda base in Iraq was located in the Kurdish autonomous zone.