I'm excited, excited, excited again ....

I like thinking about the intricacies of how the world works, and how to bring people's expectations and hopes in line with natural laws.
(Insight: as natural creatures, human beings respond well to healthy living. Not just in terms of health; we actually take a lot of pleasure from good food and good company, from doing good work, and from getting our bodies moving and playing outside.)

After last nights' "Peak Oil" meeting, I got interested in researching some questions. (Like, how exactly does fossil fuel turn into fertilizer: Turns out the Haber-Bosch process used nitrogen and hydrogen, not nitrogen and oxygen as one participant remembered. The product is ammonia, or NH3. Natural gas is one cheap feedstock from which H can be obtained. Earlier processes did fuse N and O with electrical arcs, or calcium carbides; these processes were much more expensive and were largely abandoned in favor of the Haber-Bosch process, which is why it's celebrated. See nitrogen fixation for more details.)

Found a website on "EROEI," energy return on energy invested. Fascinating information about history of human industry and fuels, prospects for fossil fuels, comparisons between EROEI for lots of different energy sources, including renewables, fossil fuels, and other alternatives.... The site's not finished, but what's there looks pretty good. They refer to substantial resources: books, downloadable articles, and other websites -- including both industry (coal) and alternative (permaculture) components.

Take-home lessons:

The economic climate, if not the global one, is likely to change significantly in the next few years or decades. Continued growth is not a safe assumption.

This is not merely an "alternative fantasy" or "leftist" issue; it's a real-world problem which demands response from all sectors of human culture and economy.

(Left vs right do argue the best responses: lefties prefer going heavy into alternatives, not just technologies but low-tech and lifestyle changes, as soon as possible, essentially viewing our current consumptive patterns as an addiction, and choosing detox over DT's.
Righties have more faith in current economic models; they push for protected resources to be released, orchestrate power plays, uphold traditional values, and manipulate information to prevent public panic and sustain profit margins.
There are some efforts that fuse both responses, such as research into alternative energy, and businesses who use "The Natural Step" framework to inspire creative and savvy business plans. Major local examples include Interface, Intel, Nike, and Norm Thompson.)

Invididuals and nations would do well to get out of debt, and choose investments that have permanent, or long-term, benefit -- even in a world where energy costs much more than now.

Education is a good investment, as it increases your ability to process information, provide for yourself, and adapt to change. Many people are choosing to focus on learning basic skills, like food production and mechanical repair. Cultivate hobbies that serve multiple purposes, like keeping you healthy, providing creative and productive outlets, and building skills and social relationships. Those in import-driven industries might do well to find local fallback options.

Neighborhood and local community will be increasingly imporant; both for moral and economic support. Build up some social equity. Spend some time with your neighbors' kids; teach them something, give them odd jobs, or just have fun together.

If you're considering a new house or car, look closely at the debt burden (variable-rate mortgages may be "Russian roulette"), and choose with energy efficiency and local resources in mind. (Food and amenities within walking distance are good.)
More suggestions along these lines are available in many sources online; good keywords include "permaculture," "peak oil," "dieoff," "sustainability," and there are a multitude of excellent authors who I'm looking forward to reading in the coming months.

NB: This emphatically will not mean "the end of the world." It means living within our means: the end of the credit card, so to speak.

Living within our means will involve letting go of certain inessentials, and coming together to create a new world full of good food, good neighbors, and possibly a simpler, easier pace to everyday life. The transition will be exciting, and possibly painful, but the results will be worth it.
Pleasure, beauty, companionship, and a re-centering on essential values and goals.

The pain will come as people struggle to adjust their expectations; as people are hit by unexpected storms, shortages, and communication breakdowns; as debtors and the poor are abused by their creditors. In other words, this change will look a lot like events that are already familiar from the course of human history.

I remember the phrase, "We have nothing to fear but fear itself." Fear is a terrible thing, producing behaviors that range from irrational to malicious. But it can be overcome with courage, and soothed with love and hope, and stamped out with determination and cooperation.

I'm here to learn, to distill useful information, and to inspire positive responses in others. Science and information suit me, but daunt many. Evoking effective responses from others will include building social capacity for coperation and constructive discussion; focussing on common values and needs, such as health and love; telling compelling and entertaining stories; and inspiring with art and hands-on activities. Mythmaking is more than one person can attempt, but I will participate in this generation's contribution.

Many people see reason to hope instead of fear the coming changes -- many of our current problems will disappear: pollution will change dramatically, economic models will change, and the political power may shift from current distributions of wealth towards others who have the foresight to anticipate market changes. We are perhaps better prepared than any civilization in history to adapt to, and accept, change: we've become accustomed to thinking of it as a good thing, which is a tremendous gift modernity has bestowed.

Optimists are encouraging a widespread revolution toward egalitarian, community-based, technologically efficient, environmentally-friendly living.

Pessimists are anticipating armageddon, holocaust: a massive global crisis as power-hungry people cannibalize the dirty dregs of an impoverished world.

There is a third response, denial: the world will continue as usual. Which is, in the larger sense, true: both harmony and crisis are very much part of the normal course of history.

I'm looking forward to this, nonetheless: living every day with pleasure, and anticipating a future in which both insight and practical skills will be tested and appreciated. This is life: this is the game for which all my fantasies and dreams have been preparing. I'm ready to play for real stakes, and the game is tremendously exciting.

Greet the world, live out loud, surf the storm-surge, have no regrets.

Responses? (If I'm going to be useful in this way, it's important to present this material without alienating my audience ... so how are you, out there?)