I keep seeing polls showing "2 point leads" or "dead heats" quoting raw percentages for the Presidential candidates, as if this were a general election without an electoral college.

The raw vote doesn't matter. At all. And yet most news stories cover it that way, which is patently stupid.

However, every morning on C-SPAN, a guy named Chuck Todd from The Hotline, gives an electoral college update. This morning, Slate has the current tally, and it ain't even close:

Bush
321 Electoral Votes
182 solid, 139 close

Kerry
217 Electoral Votes
153 solid, 64 close

The debates are yet to come (the first this Thursday), but unless Bush lays out a line of coke on the podium and snorts it up, I don't see the debates really changing many minds.

This election, while not technically a landslide, damn sure doesn't even look like it's going to be close, if you look at the only stats that really matter, the electoral races state-by-state.