As Andrew Sullivan says...here's hoping...
The trickle of good news from Iraq is beginning to gain momentum, it seems to me. I'd cite several things: the relatively subdued Shiite and Kurdish response to the suppression of the Falluja revolt; the forgiveness of 80 percent of Iraq's debt (can you imagine the media hype if John Kerry had negotiated that?); the larger-than-expected load of captured armaments in Falluja; the capture of Zaraqwi's aide, Abu Saeed; and now, the latest desperate propaganda tape by Zarqawi. What Zarqawi is doing is complaining that some Sunnis - those not committed to the global Jihad so much as defending their own privileges and fighting the occupation - are going soft. Negotiations with Allawi might bear some fruit, thus isolating Zaraqwi even further. The barbarism of Zarqawi may also be alienating more moderate Iraqis - and many Shiites whose co-religionists have been targeted by insurgent violence. The elections, even without overwhelming Sunni involvement, will doubtless add momentum to the interim government and the prospect of holding Iraq together. Yes, huge obstacles remain; and the threat of civil war (which is the flipside of Kurdish and Shiite ambivalence toward watching the Sunnis get clobbered) is still intense. But it seems to me that the light at the end of this tunnel just grew a little. Here's hoping.