http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

Life After The Oil Crash

"Deal with Reality, or Reality will Deal with You."

Dear Reader,

Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon.  This is not the wacky conclusion of a religious cult, but rather the result of diligent analysis sourced by hard data and the scientists who study global “Peak Oil” and related geo-political events. 

So who are these nay-sayers who claim the sky is falling? Conspiracy fanatics? Apocolyse Bible prophesy readers?  To the contrary, they are some of the most respected, highest paid geologists and experts in the world.  And this is what's so scary.

The situation is so dire that even George W. Bush's Energy Adviser, Matthew Simmons, has acknowledged that "The situation is desperate. This is the world's biggest serious question." 

If you are like 99% of the people reading this letter, you have never heard of the term "Peak Oil".  I had not heard the term until a few months ago.   Since learning about Peak Oil, I have had my worldview, and basic assumptions about my own individual future turned completely upside down. 

A little about myself: A few months ago, I was a 25 year old law school graduate who found out he had just passed the California Bar Exam.   I was excited about a potentially long and prosperous career in the legal profession, getting married, having kids, contributing to my community, and living the "American Dream". 

Peak Oil has caused me to seriously question how realistic this vision of my life is.

Whether your'e 25 or 75, an attorney or an auto mechanic, what you are about to read will shake the foundations of your life.

Below you find a brief explanation of Peak Oil, the ramifications, and what we can do about it.  For the sake of simplicity, I have designed the following explanation for somebody unfamiliar with Peak Oil. If you would like more in depth explanations with graphs, charts, and the like, please consult the articlesand sites I have linked to throughout this site.

What is "Peak Oil"?

All oil production follows a bell curve, whether in an individual field or on the planet as a whole. On the upslope of the curve production costs are significantly lower than on the downslope when extra effort (expense) is required to extract oil from reservoirs that are emptying out.

For the past 150 years, we have been moving up the upslope of the global oil production curve.  "Peak Oil" is the industry term for the top of the curve.  The peak will last for a year or so, at which time we will go down the very steep downslope. The further we go down the slope, the more it costs to produce oil, and its cousin, natural gas.

When will Peak Oil occur?

The most wildly optimistic estimates indicate 2020 will be the year in which worldwide oil production peaks.  Generally, these estimates come from the government.

A more realistic estimate is between the year 2004-2010.  Unfortunately, we won't know that we hit the peak until 3-4 years after we actually hit it.  Even on the upslope of the curve, oil production varies a bit from year to year.  It is possible that the year 2000 was the year of peak oil production, as production has dipped every year since. 

The energy industry has quietly acknowledged the seriousness of the situation.  For instance in an article entitled “A Revolutionary Transformation,” the president of Exxon Mobil Exploration Company, Jon Thompson stated: "By 2015, we will need to find, develop and produce a volume of new oil and gas that is equal to eight out of every 10 barrels being produced today".

That sounds pretty bad, but I don't drive an SUV or anything.  Even if gas prices get high, I could probably still make ends meet.  Why should I be concerned?

Almost every current human endeavor from transportation, to manufacturing, to electricity to plastics, and especially food production is inextricably intertwined with oil and natural gas supplies.

Commercial food production is oil powered. All pesticides are petroleum based, and all commercial fertilizers are ammonia based. Ammonia is produced from natural gas.

Oil based agriculture has been fantastic for food production. Oil allowed for farming implements such as tractors and food storage and transport systems such as refrigerators and trucks.  As oil production went up, so did food production.  As food production went up, so did the population.  As the population went up, the demand for food went up, which increased the demand for oil.

Unfortunately, we are at a point where the demand for food/oil has been rising exponentially, and is expected to continue to do so.  Oil (food) production, however, is about to drop dramatically. 

When Peak Oil occurs, food production will plummet because of the cost of fertilizer will soar.  The cost of storing (electricity) and transporting (gasoline) what little food that is produced will also soar.  Unless you grow all your own food on your own local, self sustained farm, you will have to deal with the food shortage.

Oil is also required for nearly every consumer item, water supply pumping, sewage disposal, garbage disposal, street/park maintenance, hospitals & health systems, police, fire services, and national defense.

Thus, the aftermath of Peak Oil will extend far beyond how much you will pay for gas. Simply stated, you can expect: war, starvation, economic recession, possibly even the extinction of homo sapiens. 

This is known as the post-oil "die-off".  The term "die-off" captures perfectly the nightmare that is at our doorstep.  For a humorous portrayal of the die-off, read chapter 3, "Oils Well That Ends Well" of Michael Moore's most recent book, "Dude, Where's My Country?"

What do you mean by "Die-Off"?

Exactly what it sounds like.  It is estimated that the world's population will contract to 500 million during the Oil Crash.  (current world population: 6 billion)

(lots more at site...)

(Thanks to RussW)