Put a Fork in the Fat Lady Berra
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Let me take a moment to take a big ol' Texas sized shit all over that concern troll. Here's how I see this thing going down.
The electoral vote math is really perilous for John McCain. Basically, it's the reverse Kerry situation. Kerry had to have Ohio to win with the Gore states. Barack's electoral math is almost like a game of risk, with numerous different options available to him for his take over of Eurasia. I don't want to bore anyone with the details (we all know them), but McCain *has* to win Pennsylvania but also has to ensure that he wins Florida and Ohio, both of which went to Bush in 2004 and both of which he's polling behind Barack right now.
I'm going to fill out my bracket-like electoral map later, but I think Barack's going to win the election with about 310 electoral votes.
His popular vote total will probably be through the roof. I really think that the youth are going to turn out this year. I know that phrase has been said hundreds of times in a hundred different elections, but this one just seems different, doesn't it? We've *never* had a candidate that appeals to young voters on such a large scale. He's really captured the imaginations. People compare him to Kennedy, but I think Obama's appeal goes so much further.
African Americans are going to seal this deal for Barack. They really can be the difference makers in some of these close states. If they come in Philadelphia en masse, then they can seal PA. If they come out en masse, then they can make a solidly red state like Georgia turn blue. They really can be the differnet makers in Ohio.
I wish I could be more involved in the GOTV efforts, but I've been completely impressed by all of the accounts I've read of people getting involved in making phone calls and canvassing. If there is a higher than normal turnout, which I think there will be, I think these canvassers and phone bankers will have been the difference makers.
Only one more week until this marathon is over. We must not become complacent. It's time to put the pedal to the floor and seal this deal.
- Matt
The electoral vote math is really perilous for John McCain. Basically, it's the reverse Kerry situation. Kerry had to have Ohio to win with the Gore states. Barack's electoral math is almost like a game of risk, with numerous different options available to him for his take over of Eurasia. I don't want to bore anyone with the details (we all know them), but McCain *has* to win Pennsylvania but also has to ensure that he wins Florida and Ohio, both of which went to Bush in 2004 and both of which he's polling behind Barack right now.
I'm going to fill out my bracket-like electoral map later, but I think Barack's going to win the election with about 310 electoral votes.
His popular vote total will probably be through the roof. I really think that the youth are going to turn out this year. I know that phrase has been said hundreds of times in a hundred different elections, but this one just seems different, doesn't it? We've *never* had a candidate that appeals to young voters on such a large scale. He's really captured the imaginations. People compare him to Kennedy, but I think Obama's appeal goes so much further.
African Americans are going to seal this deal for Barack. They really can be the difference makers in some of these close states. If they come in Philadelphia en masse, then they can seal PA. If they come out en masse, then they can make a solidly red state like Georgia turn blue. They really can be the differnet makers in Ohio.
I wish I could be more involved in the GOTV efforts, but I've been completely impressed by all of the accounts I've read of people getting involved in making phone calls and canvassing. If there is a higher than normal turnout, which I think there will be, I think these canvassers and phone bankers will have been the difference makers.
Only one more week until this marathon is over. We must not become complacent. It's time to put the pedal to the floor and seal this deal.
- Matt
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