You know where this is going. It's an Elsewhere post, so I'm going to gripe about writing and draw analogies to films. (This is in part because I don't read nearly enough, and my family watches many films.) But, I try to make each one a little off-the wall. Why?

You know the answer. To keep it fresh, to keep it a little unpredictable.

As an aside, I realize for a large part of this journal's life, the most unpredictable aspect was if I would write another one. Hopefully, that's changing, and for the better.

So, you know what comes next. And I know that you know. And you know that I know that you know. (Oh, did you know there's a Get Smart theatrical movie next year?)

Plot and theme aren't the only things predictable about a story, whatever the medium. They're just the ones most people think when you say "that was predictable."

Predictable plot? Name a franchise, and most of the time, you'll get a predictable overall plot. Any successful franchise is successful because it gives the audience what the audience expects, and that's usually more of the general same type of fiction and plot elements, if the details and (perhaps) core chunks rearranged or swapped out for like components.

However, that brings the difference between a successful franchise and one of those (series of) sequels that feels like it was created purely to milk us, the audience. The milkers read like someone took a search-and-replace to the first story. Not literally. Usually, they give us more of the same. Bigger threats, bigger risks, bigger incentives, bigger rewards. Asimov's Foundation series is probably the textbook case of this.

(Of course, Asimov's publisher paid him advances not just to write, or to write science fiction. They specified Foundation stories. And it was successful in spite of basically telling the same plot over and over.)

However, if you replace not just names and objects, but whole subplots, acts and archetypes, you can still use the same basic frame and come up with something different. It will satisfy the franchise fans, but not bore those of use who aren't as fanatic.

Still, this isn't the only way a story can be predictable. In both book and movie, as you get 'close to the end' you can predict some of the 'moments.' Oh, we still have 15 minutes left (or we still have this many pages) so you know the 'happily ever after' scene the creator is laying out before you will not last, that there has to be one last plot twist to occupy that last interval.

Movies err in another way: the soundtrack. There was a time, not so long ago, when the soundtrack aided the story. Now it seems almost to try to upstage the story. Most soundtracks 'announce' plot turns with key, tempo and intensity changes.

Stories can do that as well. Some stories will read 'hurried,' while others will read 'skimpy.' The author has a nice money line, a nice plot twist, a nice scene or moment and can't wait to get to it. We may not consciously note it, but part of our cognition may recognize this and brace accordingly.

It's human nature. However, even if the story is presented as a tale within a tale, told by a human, it is still written by an author. Yes, a human author, but one who should try to keep things in large part novel for readers.