{I've heard something like this on AAR or Thom Hartmann, here's a mainstream media article on the topic. --brendan}

Stock market doesn't have a favorite party
Trends show GOP delivers short-term bounce, but Democrats bring long-term gains

By Andrew Countryman

CHICAGO TRIBUNE

Tuesday, November 2, 2004

The stock market gave Harry Truman hell but had a soft spot for Bill Clinton.

In a Chicago Tribune study of market results in post-World War II elections, Truman's 1948 victory over Thomas Dewey had the most negative reaction, with the biggest one-day, one-week and one-month losses in the Dow Jones industrial average.

On the other hand, Clinton's victory over Bob Dole in 1996, in the midst of the historic bull rally in stocks, had the second-biggest one-day gain, after Ronald Reagan's victory over Jimmy Carter in 1980, and the biggest one-week and one-month advances.

The market shows only moderate partisan behavior. The three biggest one-day drops came when Democrats were elected (Truman, Carter in 1976 and Clinton in 1992), but Democratic victories also sparked two of the three biggest one-day gains (Clinton in 1996 and John Kennedy in 1960).

Republican wins, however, resulted in three of the five biggest one-day and one-week gains, and four of the five biggest one-month advances. Richard Nixon's victory in 1972 had the second-biggest one-month gain and third-biggest one-week advance.

And in the longer term, the market tends to do better under Democratic presidents than under Republicans. Based on a study by two UCLA professors on presidencies since World War II, the Standard & Poor's 500 index rose an average of 14.1 percent a year under Democrats and 11.8 percent under Republicans.
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