matthewmckibben


Goodbye, (Super) Ruby Tuesday
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"She would never say, where she came from."

Barack won Illinois even though Hillary's technically from Illinois. And I think his Illinois win was decisive enough to kind of buoy his night against the loss of Massachusetts.

"Yesterday don't matter, if it's gone"

Yesterday's primary didn't really clear anything up.

It did for the Republicans. If you're a Republican, I hope you get used to the idea of John McCain and Republican nominee being in the same sentence. Mike Huckabee's Southern wins really show that there's quite a split in the Republican race right now. And I think his wins may end up putting Huckabee on the short list for VP candidates. A McCain/Huckabee ticket would be scary, especially if Hillary is the nominee. A Republican who draws independents teamed with a Republican who draws Evangelicals against a polarizing candidate sounds like a heated race to me.

But on the Dems side, we're no closer to a nominee now than we were yesterday at this time.

What's great about yesterday is that I don't think either camp can decisively claim victory. Hillary won more of the big prizes in California, New Jersey, and New York, but Barack won more states, thereby creating a virtual tie in the delegate race.

Hillary's running a traditional Democratic state primary, while Barack seems to have more of a Republican strategy of winning "the electoral college" through smaller states. Barack's been doing well all over, north, south, east, west, and middle. Though East has been more in HRC's camp, sad to say.

I think losing Massachusetts hurt Barack a little. If Barack had managed to take Mass, then I think yesterday would have been a win for him. But as it stands now, it's a tie.

Yesterday is gone, but Super Tuesday seems to continue through next Tuesday. In that time, Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, Maine, Maryland, DC, and Virginia all have primaries or caucuses, and I have to like BO's chances to win a good portion of all of those states. I think he can take Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, and DC. I think Maine, Maryland, and Virginia will be more contested.

But then the following Tuesday, Wisconsin and Hawaii go to the polls and I have to like Barack's chances in both of those states.

While the sun is bright

We still don't know who won New Mexico. Hurry the hell up. Barack was up last time I checked, but the difference is only 500 votes or something.

Or in the darkest night

It was hard to turn off the television last night. I've never witnessed an election cycle like this before and it's very exciting.

No one knows. She comes and goes

What happens from here on out with the campaigns is anyone's guess. Barack has a lot of money at his disposal and I think that'll help with all of the states he's competing in. And knowing what I know about Barack supporters, I think they're going to continue donating now that they can taste blood. I've heard that Hillary's supporters are largely tapped out, so it'll be interesting to see how she gets her stuff out.

Goodbye, Ruby Tuesday. Who can hang a name on you?

I know I'm going to contradict myself here, but even though yesterday seems to be a virtual tie, I think it's possible to spin yesterday's results as a Barack win. Many people had viewed Tuesday as Hillary's coronation day. And every day that her coronation is postponed, I think it favors the challenger. And when you factor in his money supply and his winning of more delegates despite not winning the big prizes, I think people at Barack Headquarters are feeling pretty Ruby today.

Don't question why she needs to be so free. She'll tell you it's the only way to be

I think it's vintage Clinton Machinery to agree to 4 debates in the next 4 weeks. What better (see: cheaper) way to get her message out than to do it on CNN and MSNBC's dime?

I'll be interested to see how Barack handles the debate issue. I think he should agree to some of them, but then not to the others. I think the debates are a double-edged sword. Barack showed that he could stand toe-to-toe on policy issues, but I think that the California debate benefitted Clinton in that she really flourishes in the format. HRC's the better debater, BO's the better stumper. I think he should agree to do some, but not all. Put her on the offensive. She always does poorly when she has to go on the offense.

No more lyrics from me. I could do it all day, but I'm going to quit while I'm ahead. ... too late.

TEXAS!!!!!!!!!!

I think it's great that the Texas primary actually has sway this year. People say that it's Hillary's to lose. I'm not so sure. Texas has always been a difficult state to predict. We're the state of Anne Richards *and* George W Bush. Barack needs to do better at getting the Latino vote, that's for sure, but I don't think you can say that what happened in California with the Latino vote will happen in Texas. Latinos in Texas don't vote like they do in other states.

Barack's been doing well in the big cities and I think that bodes well for Texas which has three huge areas in Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio. And Austin seems to be firmly in the Barack camp.

Regardless, how exciting is it that my vote will actually matter this time?

- Matthew




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